Josh Kroenke told us to be excited and he wasn’t lying. The transfer we were dreaming of has finally taken place. Arsenal look to have overcome stiff competition from Napoli, Liverpool and Man United to complete the signing of Lille winger, Nicolas Pepe, for a club record £72 million pounds. In accordance with their reputation as Staggered Payments FC, the transfer fee is being paid across the next 5 years of which only £20 million is being paid to Lille this summer. We’ve all seen the highlights of Pepe from last season flashing past defenders in Ligue 1 and slotting it into the net, but what can we actually expect from the Ivory Coast international. Pepe is a left footed winger who predominantly plays out on the right wing. At Lille he was primarily known for cutting inside onto his left foot and getting a shot across on goal, but unlike Arsenal’s last competent winger on the right wing, Sanchez, he is equally adept at dropping a shoulder and dribbling to the byline. Arsenal have been heavily reliant on their wing-backs to provide this kind of width, but Pepe’s addition will create an additional dimension to Arsenal’s attack. Pepe’s goal contributions have progressed in each of his 3 seasons in Ligue 1. The 2018/19 season was a breakout season for Pepe, with 22 goals and 11 assists in 38 ligue 1 appearances. Last season he was statistically the second best player in ligue 1 after Mbappe. He almost single-handedly dragged Lille to an improbable second place finish in ligue 1. He considerably led their team in all offensive metrics, Goals, Assists, Shots per game, Key Passes, and Dribbles. The Ivory coast winger finished the season with 13 MOTM awards, which is four more than 2nd placed Mbappe, clearly showing that he’s the kind of player that can win games on his own. Pepe completed 2.7 dribbles per game, had 3.1 shots per game, and was fouled 2.8 times per game. Along each of these metrics Pepe, was among the top five players in the league. He also averaged an impressive 1.8 key passes from the right wing. However, these statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt. Ligue 1 is regarded as a defensively weak league. Players are given a lot of time on the ball and are not put under as much pressure physically compared to the premier league. Based on the clips I have seen, this could be something Pepe takes some time to adjust to. Pepe tends to hold on the ball for too long, especially in his own half. The 24-year-old winger would often retain the ball in dangerous positions and dribble around his markers. With very little pressure on the ball, he was frequently successful in beating up to 2/3 markers, but this won’t fly in the premier league. He will either be forced off the ball or brought down to stop play. He’ll need to improve his game-intelligence for the premier league and gauge when and where he can take such risks. At Lille, Pepe was the team’s ball dominant player. The first instinct of any attacker would be to pass the ball to Pepe. With players like Ozil, Xhaka, and Ceballos around him, he’ll have a lot less time on the ball at Arsenal. Pepe will be predominantly active in the final third for Arsenal and will need to focus on improving his off-the-ball runs. Last season he was dispossessed a whopping 2.8 times per game. At Arsenal, he’s not going to be fed the ball as often as at Lille, so he needs to make the right decisions on the ball. For the majority of this summer, Arsenal have been linked to a move for Zaha. Analyzing Pepe’s statistics compared to an established premier league winger like Zaha will help us better gauge Pepe’s level and potential as a premier league winger. Zaha is one of the most prolific dribblers in Europe, and this is evidenced in their underlying metrics. Zaha completes 1.3 more dribbles than Pepe per game. As a consequence of being Crystal Palace’s only reliable attacking outlet, Zaha is also dispossessed significantly more times per game than his Ivory Coast teammate. Besides the obvious disparity in dribbles, what stands out to me with respect to both players, is how well-rounded Pepe is. Pepe is more adept at creating chances both for himself and for his team. With a goal contribution of 24 compared to Zaha’s 15, Pepe is a more reliable source of goals in the final third. He averages more Shots from open play and boasts a 13% greater shooting accuracy than his Crystal Palace counterpart. In terms of expected goals metric as well, Pepe comes out on top. Without penalties, Pepe’s xG of 13.23 is almost 6 more than that of Zaha. A similar trend is seen with respect to expected assists. Even if you assume that their stats level out after applying the premier league tax, having just turned 24, Pepe possesses a higher ceiling than Zaha. Pragmatically thinking, a club like Arsenal needs to consider the sell-on value of player they purchase. Pepe will retain if not improve his value over the course of his contract whereas Zaha, who will turn 27 by the end of this year, will most definitely see a drop in value. While Zaha would have been a great addition to the squad, I believe the club has made the right choice in putting their staggered eggs in the Pepe basket. Unlike other Ligue 1 attackers who have had failed stints in the premier league, Pepe has the requisite foundation to take the step up to the premier league. On the spectrum of Gervinho to Hazard, on the success of former Ligue 1 wingers scale, Pepe is definitely closer to the Hazard side. His last season at Lille is very similar to Hazard’s last season at Lille in 2011/12. If Pepe can have a similar trajectory to Hazard after his move from Lille to Chelsea, Arsenal fans are in for a treat. Arsenal have been crying out for some creativity and dynamism on the wings, and that’s exactly what Pepe brings. Pepe is going to be a nightmare for opposition defenders with his electric pace and clinical defending. The addition of Pepe will also afford more space for Aubameyang in the box. A huge problem last season was Aubameyang being consistently marked out of the game by the opposing CBs. A tricky winger like Pepe is a magnet for opposition defenders. This will create a vacuum in the defense for Aubameyang or Lacazette to exploit. A front three of Aubameyang, Lacazette and Pepe is going to be a threat to any premier league defense. Overall, getting the signature of the Ivory Coast international over the line is a massive win for Arsenal football club. With murmurs of a £40 million budget going around at the end of the season, signing someone Pepe’s caliber seemed like a pipe dream. Pepe’s arrival is a huge sign of intent to our rivals in the battle for Champions League places. If Arsenal can capitalize on this momentum and push the Tierney signing over the line, we would’ve had our best transfer season in a decade. That’s all for this edition of the Arsenal Canon transfer review. Until next time I’ll leave you with this, WELCOME TO ARSENAL, NICOLAS PEPE! That’s all for this week’s edition of the Arsenal Canon Transfer Review. Who do you want us to cover next? Comment below and let us know!
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AuthorBasically everything you'll see on here is Canon in the history of Arsenal Football Club. That's how this works right? Archives
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